{"id":10897,"date":"2022-05-25T07:26:51","date_gmt":"2022-05-25T05:26:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mup-group.com\/?p=10897"},"modified":"2022-05-25T07:26:51","modified_gmt":"2022-05-25T05:26:51","slug":"abschatzung-der-prognostischen-wasserspiegelentwicklung-in-bergbaufolgeseen-unter-dem-einfluss-unterschiedlicher-klimatischer-bedingungen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging-mup-group-wordpress.rz.mup-digital.com\/en\/abschatzung-der-prognostischen-wasserspiegelentwicklung-in-bergbaufolgeseen-unter-dem-einfluss-unterschiedlicher-klimatischer-bedingungen\/","title":{"rendered":"Estimation of the prognostic water level development in post-mining lakes under the influence of different climatic conditions"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

For the long-term planning of water management issues in the Central German lignite mining area [LMBV mbH (2010): Zwei Jahrzehnte Braunkohlesanierung - Eine Zwischenbilanz; Leipzig], large-scale groundwater models are operated and updated on the basis of the PCGEOFM software (https:\/\/www.ibgw-leipzig.de\/index.php\/haupt-pcgeofim). The post-mining lakes currently being flooded and the receiving water systems are taken into account as time-varying boundary conditions in order to model the interactions with the groundwater balance. Long-term forecasts have so far been made on the basis of long-term climatic averages over the past 40 years. This approach is based on the assumption that future climatic conditions will develop in the same way as previous ones.<\/p>\n

Current climate projections for Saxony (ReKIS), which indicate increasingly drier and warmer conditions in the future [http:\/\/rekis.hydro.tu-dresden.de\/], have not yet been taken into account in the model forecasts. However, there is a concrete need for realistic estimates of future lake water levels, surplus and discharge volumes in the course of currently pending water legislation procedures.<\/p>\n

In order to fulfil these requirements in a targeted manner, a methodically simplified approach was chosen as an example to take future climatic developments into account.<\/p>\n

To this end, the model forecasts were carried out on the basis of the 10-year series 2011 to 2020 and the 3-year series 2018 to 2020. Due to their brevity, these series are only suitable as a basis for long-term forecasts to a limited extent. However, the scenarios are highly relevant insofar as they depict the trend towards increasingly drier and warmer conditions in a methodologically simplified manner. According to the responsible approval authority, the 2011 to 2020 series roughly corresponds to the political climate target (RCP2.6, +1.5 K compared to the 1961-1990 climate series) in terms of the average temperature increase, while the 2018 to 2020 series (+2.2 K) is still significantly colder than projected in the \"continue as before\" scenario (RCP8.2, +5 K in 2100) [LfULG Sachsen, Deutscher Wetterdienst (2021)].<\/p>\n

The simplified methodological approach of basing the model forecasts on various time series measured in the past represents an initial pragmatic and expedient approach.<\/p>\n

IBGW Engineering office for groundwater<\/strong><\/p>\n

Links to sources:<\/strong><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.bayceer.uni-bayreuth.de\/FH-DGGV-2022\/de\/prog\/bayconf\/beitrag_detail.php?id_obj=20857<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

For the long-term planning of water management issues in the Central German lignite mining area [LMBV mbH (2010): Zwei Jahrzehnte Braunkohlesanierung - Eine Zwischenbilanz; Leipzig], large-scale groundwater models are operated and updated on the basis of the PCGEOFM software (https:\/\/www.ibgw-leipzig.de\/index.php\/haupt-pcgeofim). The post-mining lakes currently being flooded and the receiving water systems are taken into account as time-varying boundary conditions in order to model the interactions with the groundwater balance. Long-term forecasts have so far been [...]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":10898,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10897","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nachrichten"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging-mup-group-wordpress.rz.mup-digital.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10897","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging-mup-group-wordpress.rz.mup-digital.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging-mup-group-wordpress.rz.mup-digital.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging-mup-group-wordpress.rz.mup-digital.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging-mup-group-wordpress.rz.mup-digital.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10897"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/staging-mup-group-wordpress.rz.mup-digital.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10897\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging-mup-group-wordpress.rz.mup-digital.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10898"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging-mup-group-wordpress.rz.mup-digital.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10897"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging-mup-group-wordpress.rz.mup-digital.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10897"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging-mup-group-wordpress.rz.mup-digital.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10897"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}